Is Obama repeating Bush’s mistakes?

So who remembers George W. Bush’s 2005 push for social security reform? Apparently Barack Obama doesn’t, so here’s a reminder for anyone else who let this historical footnote slip out of their memory.

After winning the 2004 Presidential election, George W. Bush decided to take advantage of his newfound political capital to push for Social Security reform. With a job approval rating hovering around 50% the then President brushed aside concerns over fighting two wars, slowing economic growth, and ballooning budget deficits and took to the campaign trail once again, only this time Bush wasn’t asking for our votes but for support for his Social Security reform plan.

Bush made this reform plan an important part of his 2005 State of the Union address, then in April 2005 he dedicated a special televised news conference to the issue of Social Security reform. He spent months on the trail holding “town hall meetings” to stump for his reform plan.

When congress reached its August recess with no reform plan near completion, Bush’s approval rating dropped 10 points and it never recovered.

So fast-forward to June 8, 2009 when President Obama began pushing hard for health care reform. With a job approval rating floating between 53-55%, President Obama has brushed aside concerns over crippling economic depression, job losses that seem to increase with every report, increasing violence in Afghanistan, an increasingly belligerent North Korea, and a current budget deficit that is greater than the combined national debt to hit the campaign trail for health care reform.

In the nearly two months since this push began, the President’s approval rating has dropped below 50% and it appears increasingly unlikely that a proposal will arise before the end of the year that will gain enough votes from Republicans and fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats. Obama has pushed his deadline for a ready to sign bill from the August recess to the end of the year and the public will likely not accept another push in the deadline.

Does this mean that Obama is destined to experience the job approval sink hole that Bush suffered from after his failed reform effort? Not necessarily, Obama still has plenty of time for the economy to rebound, troops will be leaving Iraq within the next two years, and if the budget deficit comes down in the next 3 years of Obama’s Presidency the public will quickly forget about the trillion dollars we added on to the national debt.

So at the end of the day, the President may not suffer the total demise his predecessor faced after failing to sway Congress and the public to support reform. However, the reform itself is likely to fail due to the polarizing effect of campaign style politics. The more speeches Obama gives and the more health care reform becomes “Obamacare” the more the President will have to overcome if and when his efforts fall short.